Early Warning .. Repercussions of the Continuing Conflict in Libya on Egyptian National Security
First - General Introduction
The Libyan crisis has entered its fifteenth year since the fall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's regime in 2011. The country remains mired in a complex, divisive landscape dominated by militias and foreign intervention. This has transformed Libya from a country with vast resources and a vital strategic location on the Mediterranean into an open arena for regional and international conflict. Despite dozens of international conferences, from Berlin to recent rounds of dialogue under the auspices of the United Nations, any comprehensive political settlement remains elusive. The geographic and institutional division between eastern Libya (dominated by the Libyan National Army led by Khalifa Haftar) and the west (controlled by the Turkish-backed Tripoli government) perpetuates the current stalemate. Given the long border that connects Egypt and Libya, and the extensive social and tribal ties between the two countries, the continuation of the conflict is not simply a matter of neighborhood concern. It is closely linked to Egypt's higher interests and constitutes one of the most prominent determinants of its national security at this stage.
Second: Current Field Dynamics
Developments on the ground in Libya indicate that the country is gradually transforming into a complex mosaic of spheres of influence and control, where parallel authorities coexist with armed militias with multiple external connections. Three main axes stand out in this context:
1. The border triangle (Egypt-Libya-Sudan): This triangle is witnessing a marked escalation in smuggling activities and the irregular movement of armed groups, particularly in light of the outbreak of the Sudanese conflict after April 2023, which has created a loose, penetrable security environment. This triangle has become a meeting point for arms, human, and fuel smugglers, as well as extremist groups exploiting the security vacuum to establish new supply lines. For Cairo, this situation increases the burden on the Egyptian army in monitoring the long border and creates a dual threat emanating from both southern Libya and Darfur, Sudan.
2. The Parallel Economy and Militia Dominance: Libya is witnessing an unprecedented overlap between informal economic channels and militia activity. The smuggling of fuel and basic goods, as well as human trafficking, has become a primary source of funding for armed factions. This overlap not only undermines attempts to build a modern nation-state, but also creates illicit economic dynamics whose effects extend to neighboring countries, including Egypt, which faces the challenge of regulating markets and limiting the flow of goods or elements that could threaten its internal stability.
3. The Persistent Institutional Divide: The continued duality of power between east and west constitutes a fundamental obstacle to any possibility of effective security or political coordination with Cairo. While Egypt maintains close ties with the eastern Libyan authorities, the Tripoli government's control over most financial and oil resources places it in an unassailable position, complicating Cairo's ability to build a balanced partnership with all parties.
Third: The Axes Affecting Egyptian National Security
1. The Security Dimension – Combating Terrorism
The security dimension poses the most direct threat to Egypt. The vacuum in southern Libya, which extends along vast borders with Niger, Chad, and Sudan, has created a fertile environment for the re-establishment of groups linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda. These groups, which have been relatively in decline in the Arab Levant, find Libya an ideal location to rebuild their bases, taking advantage of the absence of state institutions and the difficulty of controlling the rugged terrain. For Egypt, the danger of this re-establishment lies not only in the potential for terrorist attacks to be launched across the Western Desert or the Nile Valley, but also in the psychological and political impact that could generate a renewed sense of threat within Egyptian society and increase pressure on state institutions.
2. The Border Dimension and Migration
Irregular migration is one of the most sensitive challenges currently facing Egypt, as Libya has become a major transit hub for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa toward the Mediterranean. With increasing European restrictions on migrant flows, Egypt is likely to transform from a transit country into a country of forced settlement for these migrants, placing additional economic and social pressures on the Egyptian government. The length of the shared border (over 1,200 kilometers) also presents a structural challenge that is difficult to overcome, even with the significant developments in aerial and ground surveillance systems employed by the Egyptian military.
3. The Economic and Energy Dimension
Libya is one of the largest oil producers in Africa, and despite declining production due to the conflict, any disruption to Libyan exports directly impacts energy prices on the regional market. For Egypt, which has been working for years to strengthen its position as a regional energy hub, the continued chaos in Libya could create unbalanced competition or indirect threats to gas projects in the Eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, the opportunities for Egyptian companies to invest in the reconstruction sector remain hostage to the persistence of the division, which deprives Cairo of a significant economic leverage.
4. The Geopolitical Dimension
The growing presence of international and regional powers in Libya—from Russia and Turkey to the United States, Italy, and the UAE—makes the Libyan arena increasingly a battleground for intertwined influence. In light of this overlap, Cairo finds itself trapped between two growing influences: Turkish influence in the west, through its support for the Tripoli government, and Russian influence in the east, through the Wagner Group and its restructuring remnants. This reality reduces Egypt's margin for maneuver and forces Cairo to adopt a more cautious yet flexible policy to avoid any unintended escalation with any external actor.
Fourth: Possible Scenarios (2025–2026)
1. Continuity/Stagnation Scenario (Most Likely): The status quo remains unchanged, with the division between east and west continuing, militia activity continuing, and smuggling networks expanding. This scenario does not entail an immediate explosion, but it maintains a high level of threat to Egyptian security.
2. Military Escalation Scenario: The situation slides toward an open confrontation between east and west, perhaps under external pressure, which would mean new waves of refugees and an increased likelihood of armed elements infiltrating Egyptian territory.
3. International Understandings Scenario: Reaching a limited political agreement under UN auspices, which reduces tensions but does not address the deep roots of the crisis. In this case, Egypt will continue to face security and border challenges, even if the pressure on the ground is relatively reduced.
Fifth: Assessing the Egyptian Position
Egypt's position in dealing with the Libyan crisis is based on a combination of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. On the one hand, Cairo possesses considerable military power and extensive experience in securing the western border, while its social and tribal ties with the tribes of eastern Libya provide it with a strategic depth unavailable to any other party. On the other hand, the long border and multiple pressing issues (Gaza in the east, Sudan in the south, Libya in the west) impose a heavy strategic burden on Egyptian decision-makers.
In terms of opportunities, Egypt's continued role as an internationally accepted regional mediator allows it to strengthen its partnerships with Europe on migration and energy issues, in addition to the possibility of expanding reconstruction investments in the relatively stable regions of eastern Libya. On the other hand, the greatest threat remains the transformation of southern Libya into a safe haven for cross-border terrorism, the potential for major waves of displacement, and the danger of Turkish and Russian influence entrenching itself in sensitive areas near Egypt's borders.
Sixth: Early Warning Indicators to Monitor
1. Escalating attacks by extremist groups in southern Libya, particularly if they target oil infrastructure.
2. The outbreak of large-scale armed clashes between Haftar's forces and militias in the west.
3. Increasing European pressure on Egypt to assume greater responsibility for the issue of migrants arriving through Libya.
4. Russian-Turkish moves to redraw areas of influence, which could restrict Egyptian freedom of movement.
5. Increased activity of smuggling networks across the Egyptian-Libyan-Sudanese border triangle.
Conclusion
Current data demonstrate that the ongoing Libyan conflict, in the absence of a clear political horizon and increasing foreign intervention, is no longer merely a neighboring regional crisis, but rather a direct challenge to Egyptian national security, exerting pressure on several fronts simultaneously. Despite Cairo's capabilities to address these threats, the intertwining of factors on the ground, regionally, and internationally, makes it imperative that the Libyan issue remain a top priority for Egyptian policy. This is not only achieved through strengthening direct military security measures on the border, but also through adopting a comprehensive approach that combines an effective diplomatic presence, security coordination with partners, openness to investment opportunities, and leveraging any window of opportunity for settlement. This ensures minimizing risks and maximizing gains in a strategic environment characterized by a high degree of fluidity and uncertainty.