Paths of Attraction Toward China Under Confrontational US Diplomacy

Abstract

US diplomacy under the second Trump administration has been characterized by confrontation and economic and security pressure, prompting major powers such as India and Russia to reposition themselves strategically, while China has exploited these gaps to expand its influence. For India, technology, artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and maritime space have presented complex arenas for balancing US pressure with selective openness to Chinese offers, within the framework of a "flexible balancing" policy. As for Russia, Western sanctions have pushed it to deepen its partnership with Beijing through energy trade, monetary alliances, and military coordination, which has reinforced the overlapping paths between Moscow and Beijing. Conversely, the convergence of the three axes (India-Russia-China) has provided a new structure for Eurasian interactions, but they remain filled with complementary gaps and latent competition. At the systemic level, the study indicates that these interactions are reshaping the international balance, through the decline of unipolarity and the rise of "flexible zones" for managing competition, opening the door to a more interconnected and less stable international system.

Introduction

Since US President Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, US foreign policy has entered a new phase of structural tensions. This can be described as an intensified continuation of the "confrontational diplomacy" approach that characterized his first term, with the addition of greater doses of public frankness and a rush to use economic and political pressure tools. Under Trump, Washington appears to no longer care about the traditional diplomatic cover that previous administrations—both Republican and Democratic—were keen to maintain. Instead, it has shifted to a phase of declaring positions without equivocation, employing the language of "deals" rather than the institutional rhetoric typically associated with multilateral institutions. This new—or rather, more in-depth—approach has imposed itself on major global issues: from relations with European allies, to competition with China and Russia, to energy, security, and climate issues.

While the Tianjin Summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2025 could be considered a symbolic indicator of the ongoing transformations, it was, in fact, a direct reflection of the repercussions of American diplomacy under Trump II. India, long described as a "strategic partner" of the United States in confronting China, had no qualms about holding a high-level bilateral summit with Beijing despite bitter border disputes. This reflects how American confrontationalism may push traditional partners to seek alternatives, or at least to diversify their strategic options away from complete dependence on Washington.

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