Regional Concerns: To what extent does Iran's missile program pose a real and lasting threat?

Abstract

The Iranian missile program is one of the most prominent pillars of strength and deterrence in Iranian strategy. It combines defensive dimensions to compensate for limited air capabilities and offensive dimensions aimed at strengthening regional influence and reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East. Iranian missiles are no longer merely a deterrent tool; they have become a means of establishing Iran's presence across conflict zones in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. It also highlights that Israeli, Gulf, and international concerns about this program are linked to its direct threat to national security and the security of vital energy routes. Despite attempts to contain it through sanctions or missile defenses, these efforts remain limited in effectiveness, opening the way for various scenarios: either reaching understandings that reduce the pace of escalation, the region slipping into an accelerating arms race, or the emergence of more complex deterrence equations that will shape the future of regional security.

Introduction

The Iranian missile program is one of the most controversial issues in the regional and international arenas, as it represents a dual-use strategic tool for Tehran. On the one hand, it serves as a means of military deterrence, given Iran's awareness of the gap in conventional superiority between it and the major powers. On the other hand, it constitutes a political bargaining chip in its negotiations with the West and in reshaping the regional balance. This issue has gained double importance since Iran announced the expansion of its testing and development of advanced medium- and long-range missile systems, capable of reaching deep into Israel and parts of Eastern Europe, in addition to possessing increased capabilities to carry conventional warheads and possibly nuclear warheads in the future.

The seriousness of this issue is further embodied in light of recent regional developments, which have witnessed an escalation in the use of missiles as a tool in proxy warfare, whether through the Houthis, who launched ballistic missiles targeting Israel in August 2025, or through Hezbollah, which has continued to use precision missiles in its clashes with the Israeli army on the Lebanese border. These facts reinforce the conviction that the Iranian missile program is no longer the exclusive domain of the Iranian military establishment, but has become a distributed, cross-border structure, which Iran is feeding with technology and expertise as part of its strategy of "exporting deterrence”.

At the international level, statements by Kaya Kallas, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, indicate a shift in the debate from traditional economic sanctions to the activation of the "snapback" mechanism to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran, not only in light of the nuclear issue, but also clearly as a result of the "growing threat of the missile program." This qualitative shift in European discourse reflects a growing recognition that the Iranian missile threat is not limited to Middle Eastern balances, but extends to European security itself, especially in light of the war in Ukraine and the military cooperation it has revealed between Moscow and Tehran in the field of drones and missiles. In this context, the debate over the "extent" of the Iranian missile threat becomes a complex one that goes beyond purely military technical considerations to extend to geopolitical, security, and strategic dimensions.

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